India’s growth relies heavily on emission-intensive activities, with the emission intensity of our GDP currently 41% higher than the global average. Given India’s historically low emissions, economic growth is prioritized over climate concerns. However, climate shocks threaten our food security, and India is extremely vulnerable
Consider this: six out of nine biophysical planetary boundaries have already been breached. And despite all the carnage our carbon footprint has caused, more than 50% of Indians still live below decent living standards. We need massive amounts of energy and natural resources to pull them out of poverty. How can we accomplish this while minimizing risks of planetary tipping points?
Despite the challenges, there are multiple sustainable options for growth. Let's explore a few here.
Each sector needs different actions. The power sector transition is critical since it has the highest emissions. Despite lower generation costs of solar and wind, the variability of renewable power makes it more expensive than fossil-fuel-based power. Expensive storage is needed to supply power when there is no sunlight or wind. Investments in transmission lines are needed to transmit power from the places where renewable energy is available, to users across the country. Intelligent grids are needed.
All this implies higher costs for renewables, despite lower generation costs. Variable pricing could be used to encourage more usage during the day when there is surplus power, and vice versa. Rooftop solar needs more incentives.
The manufacturing sector is made of hard-to-abate sectors such as cement, steel, and refining. Having said that, however, there are successful proof-of-concept for low-carbon manufacturing using green hydrogen and reusing steel scrap waste to manufacture iron.
Every year, India adds a city the size of London to its urban population. Energy demand in buildings is expected to increase by 800% between 2012 and 2047! Demand for steel, iron, and cement will increase with an associated rise in emissions. Car usage will skyrocket, with even more vehicles on already-congested urban roads. The carbon intensity of India's transportation and buildings is high due to greater usage of private cars and poorly designed infrastructure. Buildings' share of energy use in 2019 was 25%, while transport was 13.5%. As much as 96% of India’s housing shortage is in the economically weaker section. This is an opportunity to construct energy-efficient, low-carbon, and resilient buildings for this housing segment. Public rental housing and social rent can be implemented where rents are controlled according to the ability to pay, and not decided by the rent market.
India must reverse its policies that have led to the rapid growth of air and road transport while rail travel has declined. It needs to encourage transition from private cars to efficient, affordable, electric mass transportation. Private transportation needs to be discouraged via steep congestion and parking fee. The results will be less extraction, production, pollution, and reduced energy intensity of the economy.
This will incentivize sustainable practices. Nature provides valuable services such as clean air, water, flood protection, and pollination, but these are ignored by the market. The price of the food we consume is about half the actual cost since the impact on the environment is not factored in. As ecological costs are priced, markets will drive shifts to more sustainable methods, or shift to alternative products. Food prices will increase, necessitating financial support for the poor.
The ultra-rich are disproportionately responsible for climate change. Within-country inequality in carbon emissions is greater than between-country inequality. Carbon emissions of the top 1% or 0.1% have risen significantly, whereas carbon emissions of the bottom half of the population have decreased globally. Shifts in lifestyles can contribute to reducing emissions.
Aviation, where a tiny minority spew emissions for luxury reasons, can be steeply taxed. Already, France has banned domestic short-haul flights where train alternatives exist, and Denmark plans a passenger tax on domestic flights.
Progressively higher tax rates could be implemented depending on the size and number of homes. Certain kinds of consumption can be prohibited, such as private jets and sports utility vehicles (SUVs). A 4% tax on dollar billionaires (less than 1,000 families) would generate revenues of 1% of GDP. Higher corporate tax would help in reducing inequality, while raising funds for green transition and climate adaptation.
Agriculture needs to move away from heavily commercialized and chemical agriculture. Overuse of subsidized fertilizers and pesticides results in soil degradation and threatens food production. The World Bank has piloted climate-resilient paddy cultivation programs that result in improved yield, reduced water requirements, and methane emissions. Opportunities for crop rotation with legumes, climate resilient plants, early warning systems for extreme weather events, technologies for carbon sequestration, and soil smart technologies can improve resilience.
Arid north-west India is likely to experience critically low groundwater availability by 2025. Agriculture is guilty of indiscriminate extraction of groundwater. Farmers need to be incentivized to adopt rainwater harvesting and water conservation. Likewise, in cities, impermeable city surfaces need to be replaced with sand, soil and plants, which will help retain water.
Direct and Indirect subsidies for dirty fuels continue to be huge. Artificially low prices incentivize the overconsumption of fossil fuels relative to renewables. During FY 2021, fossil fuels received a 9 times higher subsidy than renewables. A few subsidies are vital for health and development. However, India's subsidies, particularly for electricity, are poorly targeted, with many benefits being captured by higher-income households. Rationalizing these subsidies, currently at 1% of GDP, can support the cost of the green transition.
Our unsustainable lifestyle is based on a linear ‘use-it-up-and-throw-it-away’ model. An alternative is CE, where waste and pollution are minimized and products are kept in use for as long as possible. The focus is not only on recycling and reuse, but also on reducing overall production and consumption. As we develop, these principles will help reduce our demands on energy and materials.
Why continue spending scarce foreign exchange on importing oil and coal (87% and 24% of our needs), when we could use increasingly cheaper renewables? Why struggle in ever more crowded, polluted, and congested cities, when we can build smarter cities and enjoy clean, efficient, and high-speed public transport? At present, we have little choice but to embrace sustainable development and a lifestyle that respects our planetary boundaries.
Sangeeta is an ex-IBMer with an interest in Climate Change and Earth Systems. She is currently volunteering with Statistics without Borders as Co-Chair, New Client Acquisition. She tweets at @SangeetaJayad.
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